Bihar, with a population of nearly 13 crore, is the third most populous state in India. According to the 2023 census, 81.99% of the population belongs to the Hindu community, 17.70% to Islam, 0.08% to Buddhism, 0.06% to Christianity, and 0.17% to other religious communities, including Jain, Sikh, and others. Before the introduction of the Special Intensive Revision (SIR), the total number of voters in the state was nearly 7.89 crore, which decreased to 7.45 crore after SIR. While Muslims are the second-largest community in Bihar, their dominant region is Seemanchal, which includes the districts of Purnea, Araria, Kishganj, and Katihar. There are 24 constituencies in this region.

In the 2020 Bihar state elections, the NDA won 12 constituencies, the INDIA alliance secured 7, and AIMIM won 5 constituencies in Seemanchal. The participation of AIMIM without any alliance and the results they achieved demonstrated that the ground was suitable for experimental community- or identity-based politics. In a period characterized by a Hindutva wave, this trend was positive for electoral politics, showing that a small political party from a minority community could contest independently and secure seats without forming alliances. However, the scenario changed after the introduction of SIR.

Following the first stage of SIR, nearly 65,75,222 voters were excluded from the voter list. In the second stage, some of these voters were restored, and the number of excluded voters changed to 48,75,738. Most of those excluded were Muslims, predominantly from the Seemanchal region. In addition to the SIR-related exclusions, AIMIM’s participation through a small alliance called the Grand Democratic Alliance, which included minor parties like ASP and AJP, proved advantageous for the NDA. In Seemanchal, where AIMIM contested independently, the division of votes helped the BJP secure seats by narrow margins. Had AIMIM been part of the INDIA alliance, these seats could have been won by them with a significant lead. This illustrates how the implementation of SIR and AIMIM’s independent participation altered Muslim voting patterns in the Seemanchal region.

After the first round of SIR, 65,75,222 voters were nearly removed from the voter list. Of these, non-Muslims accounted for 48,75,738, while Muslims numbered 16,26,990, representing 24.7% of the removed voters. After the second round, the number of permanently removed voters was 3,23,372, with non-Muslims accounting for 2,03,651 and Muslims for 1,03,724, or 32% of the deletions. Statistical reports indicate that a person with a Muslim name had more than a 50% chance of being removed from the voter list after SIR. This exclusion primarily affected Seemanchal and led to a variation in the Muslim community’s voting pattern in the region.

The active participation of AIMIM without an alliance further assisted the NDA in gaining more seats. In the 2025 elections, out of Seemanchal’s 24 constituencies, the NDA secured 17 seats, while AIMIM won 6. Examination of the results reveals that nearly four constituencies won by the NDA were decided by a small margin. Had AIMIM been part of the INDIA alliance, these constituencies could have been won by a significant margin. Importantly, three out of these four constituencies were sitting seats held by the INDIA alliance.
In Balrampur, a sitting seat of CPI(ML) Liberation under the INDIA alliance, Sangitha Devi of LJP, contesting in the NDA alliance, got 80,459 votes, with a lead of only 389 votes. AIMIM secured 80,070 votes, and CPI(ML) Liberation received 79,141 votes, totaling 1,59,211 votes. Had AIMIM and CPI(ML) Liberation contested together as part of the INDIA alliance, they could have won by a margin of 78,752 votes. Similarly, in Thakurganj, a sitting seat of RJD, Gopal Kumar Agarwal from JDU got 85,220 votes, a lead of 9,503 votes. AIMIM secured 76,421 votes and RJD 60,036 votes, totaling 1,36,457 votes. If these two parties were in the same alliance, they could have easily defeated the NDA with a lead of 51,214 votes.

In Pranpur, a sitting BJP seat, Nisha Singh of BJP got 1,08,565 votes, with a lead of 7,752. RJD received 1,00,813 votes, and AIMIM 30,163 votes, totaling 1,30,976 votes. Had they been in the same alliance, the INDIA alliance could have won by 22,411 votes. In Kasba, a sitting INC seat, Nitesh Kumar Singh of LJP got 86,877 votes, a lead of 12,875. The vote was split among several parties: AIMIM gained 35,309 votes, INC 74,002, AAP 1094, and SDPI 1229, totaling 1,11,634 votes. Had these parties been in an alliance against the NDA, they could have easily defeated the NDA with a margin of 24,757 votes.

These statistics pertain only to the Seemanchal region, a Muslim-majority area, and demonstrate how the implementation of SIR and vote splitting contributed to the NDA’s increased seat count in the region. AIMIM managed to gain one or two additional seats compared to the last state election, but their independent participation significantly contributed to the loss of seats by the INDIA alliance, allowing the NDA to achieve a majority. While AIMIM’s political participation is commendable, given that representation of minority communities during a Hindutva period is crucial, strategic alliances could have reduced the political advantage gained by the NDA. The exclusion of Muslim votes after SIR, combined with the election outcomes, highlights how this new law is likely to influence the future political representation of the Muslim community in Bihar.